Director, Commercial Forecasting

Job title: Director, Commercial Forecasting

Company: Ardelyx


Job description: Ardelyx is a publicly traded commercial biopharmaceutical company founded with a mission to discover, develop and commercialize innovative first-in-class medicines that meet significant unmet medical needs. Ardelyx has two commercial products approved in the United States, IBSRELA® (tenapanor) and XPHOZAH® (tenapanor). Ardelyx has agreements for the development and commercialization of tenapanor outside of the U.S. Kyowa Kirin commercializes PHOZEVEL® (tenapanor) for hyperphosphatemia in Japan. A New Drug Application for tenapanor for hyperphosphatemia has been submitted in China with Fosun Pharma. Knight Therapeutics commercializes IBSRELA in Canada.Director, Commercial ForecastingJob SummaryThe Director, Commercial Forecasting will be responsible for evolving capabilities in forecasting, including developing strategy related to forecasting methodologies, processes, and technologies that will enhance decision-making and planning across the organization. This role will be a key member of the Commercial Operations & Analytics team and will partner closely with cross-functional stakeholders (e.g., Marketing, Sales, Business Development, FP&A) to optimize estimation and articulation of the commercial opportunity for IBSRELA® and XPHOZAH®. This is a hands-on role that requires an entrepreneurial mindset and a willingness to execute all aspects of forecasting, from modeling through to creating a narrative and driving the company to action. The position will be based out of the Ardelyx, Waltham, MA and may require some travel. This role will report to the Executive Director, Business Analytics.If you’d like to help establish Ardelyx as a leading company in the biopharma industry, one that advances patient care with novel therapies that meet important clinical needs, come join us!Responsibilities:

• Owning development of US forecasts, including market, demand, distribution and revenue assumptions across multiple products and indications
• Provide short-term and long-term forecasts, incorporating market trends, competitive intelligence, and industry benchmarks
• Integrating secondary data analyses (script and dispense data, claims analysis) and primary market research insights to support forecast assumptions
• Ensure forecasts are updated regularly to reflect new data, market changes, and business assumptions, aligning with recurring business reviews & budget planning/forecast cycles
• Maintaining an up-to-date view of key risks and opportunities in the short, mid and long-term based on tracking of actual product performance vs. forecast expectations
• Driving consolidation and delivery of the forecast narrative to executive leadership & commercial leadership team
• Proposing methodology, process improvements, and technology solutions, then getting buy-in from cross-functional leaders and leading implementation of such solutions
• Working closely with vendor partners (Komodo, IQVIA, Symphony and others) to identify analogs and benchmarks to support forecast assumptions
• Partner cross-functionally across the Ardelyx organization to support all forecast needs from a commercial perspective. This includes but is not limited to:

• Supporting Market Access team with forecasting needs related to Patient Services (ArdelyxAssist)
• Partnering with Corporate Development to assess new product planning and LCM needs
• Partnering with CMC for supply/Trade forecasting needs
• Partnering with Finance and FP&A teams to assess market dynamic impacts on product revenue generation

Minimum Qualifications

• Bachelor’s degree required; MBA or other advanced degree preferred
• 10+ years of industry experience, with 5+ leadership experience in demand forecasting within a pharmaceutical/biotech company or healthcare consulting firm (will consider related experience)
• Expertise in MS Office (Excel/PowerPoint) & high proficiency with BI platforms (Tableau, Power BI)
• Experience with secondary data (e.g., Komodo claims data, audited TRx data (IQVIA or Symphony Health), and epidemiology references)
• Expertise in developing product forecasts, market assessments, and competitive intelligence analyses, especially in markets with nuanced reimbursement dynamics
• Proven track-record of working with senior leadership on forecast development and communication

Skills

• Familiarity with pharmaceutical product revenue cascades, including gross to net calculations for pharmacy and medical benefit products; experience with government pricing calculations (Medicaid AMP, Medicare ASP/TDAPA, VA FSS/FCP etc…) preferred
• Experience with launches and commercialization of pharmaceutical products with related advanced analytical modeling
• Strong quantitative and analytical skills, with the ability to extract and quickly process key information, summarize needs of cross-functional teams, and provide targeted and appropriate insights and recommendations
• Extensive knowledge of pharmaceutical data (e.g., ex-factory, 867, TRx, specialty pharmacy, inventory, payer, promotional & marketing data including digital/omnichannel, longitudinal patient-level data)
• Experience working with life science consultants (Trinity, Komodo, Beghou, IQVIA, etc…)
• Strong blend of technical proficiency, business acumen, and experience informing business growth and opportunity
• Strong verbal and written communication skills
• Skilled at leading without authority in a cross-functional environment
• Collaborative and influential leadership style, with the ability to build strong partnerships across the organization
• Ability to work in a fast-paced environment with strong attention to detail and accuracy

The anticipated annualized base pay range for this full-time position is $200,340-244,860. Ardelyx utilizes industry data to ensure that our compensation is competitive and aligned with our industry peers. Actual base pay will be determined based on a variety of factors, including years of relevant experience, training, qualifications, and internal equity. The compensation package may also include an annual bonus target and equity awards, subject to eligibility and other requirements.Ardelyx also offers a robust benefits package to employees, including a 401(k) plan with generous employer match, 12 weeks of paid parental leave, up to 12 weeks of living organ and bone marrow leave, equity incentive plans, health plans (medical, prescription drug, dental, and vision), life insurance and disability, flexible time off, annual Winter Holiday shut down, and at least 11 paid holidays.Ardelyx is an equal opportunity employer.

Expected salary:

Location: Waltham, MA

Job date: Thu, 06 Feb 2025 02:26:20 GMT

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